Experts do not undertake to draw final conclusions, but talking about the possibility of buying shares on the cheap
Ukrainian corporations and our Ministry of Finance should closely follow the collapse of the Russian financial market, and to carefully calibrate its external borrowing. Analysts fear the impact of a collapse in Russia by domestic companies.
“Unfortunately, investors often come to the conclusion that if Russia has problems, and the Ukrainian issuers (mainly Eurobonds) should be treated with caution. Lose appetite. Regarding this risk, Metinvest and MHP — well done, they managed to carry out the transaction. If the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine plans to place Eurobonds, then he needs to follow the mood in the markets and to be flexible to catch the window,” said UBR.ua senior analyst at Concorde Capital investment company Dmitry Khoroshun.
Moreover, despite the sanctions and restrictions, the Ukrainian business continued to cooperate with Russian colleagues. And important question — whether the important contract to be under threat or even being ripped off? Because it can lead to a reduction in the dollar flow to our country.
“Ukraine has always been a rigid adherence to the Russian economy. However, while the hryvnia exchange rate does not duplicate the ruble, taking into account the capacity and level of development of the currency and the stock market in our country. But do not forget that in many areas of our Russian companies are competitors, and here’s the other link. In addition, when the bankruptcy of certain companies of the Russian Federation, it is unclear what will happen to their Ukrainian assets. And with prices on the world markets: as a raw material, and finished products,” said UBR.ua Director, Department of market research of the rating Agency IBI-Rating Victor szulik.
Many questions remain unanswered, analysts have only begun to assess the risks, locking the first effects. Too little time has passed since the adoption of the new portion of us sanctions against Russia and yesterday’s reaction of the Russian markets. The sanctions imposed on 6 April and they have affected 7 of the oligarchs, the 12 companies and 17 civil servants. The reaction was the collapse of the number 9, on Monday, the stock and currency market of the Russian Federation.
The index of the Moscow exchange yesterday fell by 8.34% and the RTS index — by 11.44. Leaders of the collapse of steel of the action “the Pole” (-26,22%), “Rusala” (-20,35%), Sberbank (ordinary shares fell by 16.59%), “Norilsk Nickel” (-15,87%). The currency exchange rate of the Russian Federation against the dollar on Monday fell by 2.22 ruble and reached 60,39 RUB/$, and started Tuesday movement to 63,04 RUB/$.
“Choosing as an indicative flogging of the company Oleg Deripaska and especially of “RUSAL”, the US government was in a very vulnerable and painful point. The American market was of great importance for the export of Russian aluminum, the calculations on the market of this metal is carried out mainly in dollars. Besides, the company, having main assets in Russia, is registered in Jersey, the official headquarters is located in Cyprus, and the shares were located in Hong Kong. The company has huge debt burden, and, although a significant part of loans issued by Russian banks, almost all of them are denominated in dollars. So it was very easy to get high problems with the least effort,” — said UBR.ua analyst at JSC “Finam” Alexey Kalachev.
Although assured that the Russian stock market has already digested the first shock, and for some securities there is a correction.
“The players took a breather and overestimate the risks. On the one hand, the low stock prices of strong companies with high dividend yields in the hottest period after the release of the annual report and before the official announcement of dividends. On the other hand, the risk of continuing fall in the case of tougher sanctions and extending them to other sectors and companies,” — said Kalachev.
Actually, this is another important question — will the States expand its Russian sanctions list (of possible contenders around 200 of the defendants)? He is in the military-political plane. Because it is expected that the Americans will not rush, and will bargain with the Kremlin not only on the “Ukrainian question”, but also on Syria and other areas. While this is going on, the markets will be able to take a breath and stabilize.
“The stock market and the currency most sensitive to such things. And if the collapse of the capitalisation shares may be regarded as a preparation for the change of ownership structure at a “bargain price”, the collapse of the currency — the real blow to the purchasing power of the population. At least it will lead to the rise of inflation. On the other hand, at the end of March the volume of reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to $457,7 billion — enough to dampen speculative demand for foreign currency”, — said Victor szulik.
By the way, even skilled investors can earn on short purchases of securities.
“Who can guess the bottom and buy, can earn a lot. My friends the one who thinks that the Russian instruments can be short to zero”, — said Alexey Kalachev.
Investitsionnyi already started to give advice to Ukrainian traders operating in the markets of Russia (at one time they were of great interest to private investors). Cautioning them against hasty steps. “It is too early to draw conclusions, the situation should become clearer, and it will take some time. From three days to three weeks,” — said Kalachev.
To assess the impact of the collapse of the Russian ruble and financial markets in Ukraine in General, may take from one to two months. If problems are localized and will continue to worsen even more.