Investors ‘ appetite for risk will gradually be reduced
The increase in current income in the United States and the growing gap between America and the world in the near future will continue to stimulate the dollar, predicted the French group BNP Paribas, which owns Ukrainian UkrSibbank. Her assessment on the 2019 published by Bloomberg.
“These processes will ultimately put pressure on emerging markets, especially in the light of ongoing slowdowns in the Chinese economy. But in the medium-term, the dollar should also weaken”, — at the same time the publication of the Agency.
It highlighted the fact that spreads will increase and the profitability to fall. This in turn will affect the overall profitability. The rise in risk Premia and not yield growth will be a key factor in reducing yield.
“Slowing growth and tighter monetary policy, combined with the considerable reduction of bond purchases by Central banks show a decrease in the willingness to take risks,” analysts said.
At BNP Paribas, though, and see opportunities for further outflow of risky assets, but do not believe that in 2019 we will be able to enter a “bear market”. There waiting for the active development of the stock market as a whole, which will keep global bond yields.
The analysts of the French group to predict a slowdown in GDP growth in developed countries.
“Uncertainty in the trade war between China and the US burden of stocks and emerging markets. In connection with the growth of the trade deficit of the United States, we expect the uncertainty over Sino-American trade relations. This is likely to increase the deceleration of global growth and increase the risk premium in global equity markets, especially in the technology sector. Europe will feel the indirect consequences of this dispute”, — consider in BNP Paribas.