The coming year may be good for oil, gold, copper
The Ukrainian economy is to a very large extent depends on demand for raw materials on external markets. In 2018 in many industries — oil, copper, coffee, sugar decline. Bloomberg made forecast what to expect in the next 12 months.
In the last few quarters the market was in turbulence. The United States has reached record levels of production slates. The market was also affected by the strengthening of sanctions against Iran and a reduction in production from OPEC. Concern served as the impetus for market recovery. Oil prices can once again crawl up.
In 2019, Venezuela is likely to further cut production — roughly 1 million barrels per day. The US refusal to Iranian energy resources has a temporary status, which may be revised in may of this year. Saudi Arabia can also have its say.
The next OPEC meeting will take place in April, and by the time oil prices may rise. According to forecasts of Bloomberg, Brent will grow from $56 to $68 per barrel.
A Golden opportunity
In the last month in 2018 in the gold market prevailed “bull” a trend. This reversal provoked by several factors.
In the US the Federal reserve was in no hurry to revise the discount rate in accordance with the growth rate of the economy. Investors looking for ways to protect against turmoil in financial markets and slowing global growth.
Analysts concur that in the next few months the positive trend in the gold market will continue. In the next 200 days, the price of these raw materials can achieve maximum 2013. Forecast of the average price per ounce — $1325.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the price of copper showed the worst 2015 result. The metal prices dropped due to concerns about a global economic slowdown and the U.S.-China trade confrontation.
Some industry figures offer hope to investors. If Washington and Beijing have come to an agreement, it will have a positive impact on the industry. The average forecast for 2019 — will rise from the current $5833 per ton to $6400/t
Soy slows down
Soybeans can benefit from any improvements in trade relations between the US and China. At the end of last year the parties were able to agree on several points, and China increased imports of U.S. beans. However, traders were disappointed in small batches of supplies.
American farmers hope that the sides will reach an understanding before the expiration of the 90-day truce. The key question — whether to agree Beijing, the main buyer of soybeans from the United States to reduce tariffs on agricultural products from the United States.
The market can also affect Brazil — increase of supply in the market amid closed China could further bring down prices.
The potential of pigs
The number of pigs in China is around 400 million — more than half of the world market. At the same time, in this country, there have been flashes of the African plague among pigs. This disease may not threaten the person, but 100% lethal to animals. Of the recent cases on 1 January this year there was an outbreak on a farm with 73-thousand livestock.
There are fears that the epidemic could threaten not only China, but other countries in Asia. In case of significant losses of livestock, Beijing will start to import pork. Including from the United States despite a trade war. It is possible that will increase the demand for chicken meat as a raw material substitute.
In 2018, the price of one ton of iron ore was almost $70 and in 2019 there is a risk of further decline. On the world market main suppliers are Brazil and Australia — will face a slow growth of consumption in China. Most likely, the volume of steel production will come to a plateau. Analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted the price of iron ore this year at $62 per ton.